An Analysis of The Trend of Incidences and Fatality of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in East Java from 2015-2020: A Lesson From COVID-19

Background: Pulmonary tuberculosis is still a public health problem, and surveillance data analysis has not been done much. Recently a global pandemic of COVID-19 has the potential in disturbing TB elimination pro-grams and treatment. This study aims to comprehensively analyse the incidence rate (IR) and Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of pulmonary tuberculosis in East Java from 2015–2020 and during COVID-19 and the strategies for optimizing tuberculosis disease control. Methodology: The study analyzed annual surveillance data using an analytical descriptive design. The Varia-bles were analyzed with Spearman correlation with a level of evidence of 95% (p<0.05). Results: The prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis in East Java fluctuated from 2015–2020. In 2020 and dur-ing the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of cases and morbidity rates increased. Statistic results confirm the presence of a significant correlation between the values of Incidence rate (IR) and Case Fatality rate (CFR) (p = 0.032), IR and Treatment Success Rate (TSR) (p = 0.020), and CFR and TSR (p = 0.002). Population density is not correlated with the number of new cases (p = 0.667). Treatment rates have increased to 51%; cure and treatment rates have decreased to 76% and 89%, respectively, and there was a 4% increase in mortality dur-ing COVID-19. Conclusions: COVID-19 has tremendously affected the treatment of pulmonary TB cases in East Java, Indone-sia by increasing the incidence rate and decreasing the fatality rate. The pandemic promotes fear in the com-munity to check their medical status and improve the quality of their health in East Java.

Características y factores de riesgo de mortalidad por COVID-19 en Tamaulipas, a un año de pandemia / Characteristics and risk factors of COVID-19 mortality in Tamaulipas, one year after the pandemic

Resumen Coronavirus 19 (COVID-19), es una enfermedad viral prevalente y diseminada a nivel mundial, considerada una pandemia con alta tasa de mortalidad. A la fecha no existen estudios que describan la influencia de las variables asociadas a la enfermedad en el estado fronterizo de Tamaulipas, México. El objetivo del presente estudio fue evaluar y analizar las características, complicaciones, tasas de letalidad y factores de riesgo asociados a mortalidad en paciente positivos a COVID-19 en el estado de Tamaulipas, a un año de la emergencia local. Se utilizó la frecuencia de casos observados en relación a características, complicaciones y comorbilidades para estimar prevalencias y tasas de letalidad. Se ajustó un modelo de regresión logística multivariada para estimar los factores de riesgo significativos y se utilizaron curvas de supervivencia de Kaplan-Meier para describir las comorbilidades más importantes. Los análisis indicaron una mayor infección en pacientes en edad productiva, con una probabilidad significativa de muerte a partir de los 40 años, más evidente en pacientes masculinos. Los riesgos asociados a la hospitalización, como intubación endotraqueal y neumonía, son factores muy importantes. Las comorbilidades con alta prevalencia (diabetes, hipertensión y obesidad) y enfermedad renal crónica (ERC) están asociados significativamente (P < 0.01) a mayor mortalidad por COVID-19 en pacientes positivos. El presente estudio demostró algunos patrones generales de prevalencia y tasas de letalidad por COVID-19, por lo que se sugieren particularidades en los factores asociados a mortalidad en la población de Tamaulipas que requieren atención en sus grupos vulnerables, sobre todo en posibles casos de rebrotes de la enfermedad.

Abstract Coronavirus 19 (COVID-19) is a prevalent and globally disseminated viral disease that has become a pandemic associated with a high case fatality rate. To date, there are no published studies that describe the influence of the variables associated with the disease, specifically in the border state of Tamaulipas, Mexico. The objective of the present study was to assess the characteristics, complications, fatality rates and risk factors associated to mortality in patients positive to COVID-19 in Tamaulipas, one year after the local emergency. Descriptive frequency of characteristics, complications for prevalence and case fatality rates were used. A multivariate logistic regression model was adjusted to estimate the meaningful risk factors, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to describe the most important comorbidities. The analysis indicated higher infection rates in patients of productive age, with a significant death probability in male patients from the age of 40. The risks associated with hospitalization, such as endotracheal intubation and the presence of pneumonia are important risk factors. Comorbidities with high prevalence; diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) were significantly associated (P < 0.01) with higher COVID-19 mortality risk in the assessed population. The present study demonstrated some COVID-19 general patterns on frequency and mortality rates. It also suggested particularities in factors associated to mortality in the Tamaulipas population, which require proper attention in vulnerable groups, especially in future outbreaks of the disease.

Impacto indirecto de COVID-19 en las tasas de incidencia de enfermedades transmitidas por vector en México / Indirect impact of COVID-19 on the incidence rates of vector-borne diseases in Mexico

Resumen Introducción: La distribución espacial y temporal de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 sobrepasa las áreas endémicas de enfermedades transmitidas por vector (ETV), cuya vigilancia en México ha cambiado sustancialmente a partir del primer caso confirmado de COVID-19. Objetivos: Estimar y comparar las tasas de incidencia de las ETV antes y después de la introducción del SARS-CoV-2 en México. Métodos: Estudio retrospectivo de casos de ETV de 2014 a 2021. Las tasas de incidencia de cada ETV en el periodo previo (2014-2019) y posterior (2020-2021) a la introducción del SARS-CoV-2 en México fueron calculadas y comparadas. Resultados: Antes de la introducción del SARS-CoV-2, las tasas de incidencia de las ETV fueron altas y posterior a la introducción del coronavirus hubo un descenso en los índices epidemiológicos; sin embargo, solo se identificó diferencia estadística significativa en la tasa de incidencia de la malaria (p ≤ 0.05) y otras rickettsias (p ≤ 0.05). Conclusiones: Algunas medidas para reducir los casos de COVID-19, como el distanciamiento social, el confinamiento domiciliario, la reducción en el aforo en el transporte público y el trabajo en casa, probablemente contribuyeron a disminuir temporalmente el número de casos de las ETV; sin embargo, puede haber rebrote de las ETV en el futuro cercano.

Abstract Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 infection spatial and temporal distribution overlaps with endemic areas of vector-borne diseases (VBD), whose surveillance in Mexico has substantially changed since the first COVID-19 confirmed case. Objectives: To estimate and compare the incidence rates of VBDs before and after the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico. Methods: Retrospective study of VBD cases from 2014 to 2021. The incidence rates of each VBD in the period before (2014-2019) and after (2020-2021) the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico were calculated and compared. Results: Before the introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the incidence rates of VBDs were high and after the introduction of coronavirus there was a decrease in epidemiological indices; however, there was only statistically significant difference in the incidence rate of malaria (p ≤ 0.05) and other rickettsiae (p ≤ 0.05). Conclusions: Some measures to reduce COVID-19 cases, such as social distancing, home confinement, reductions in public transport and working at home (home office), probably temporarily decreased the number of VBD cases; however, there may be a resurgence of VBDs in the near future.

Leishmaniose visceral: aspectos epidemiológicos, espaciais e temporais no município de Sobral, nordeste do Brasil, 2007-2019 / Visceral leishmaniasis: epidemiological, spatial and temporality aspects in the municipality of Sobral, northeast Brazil, 2007-2019

Objetivos: descrever os aspectos epidemiológicos, espaciais e temporais da leishmaniose visceral humana, no município de Sobral, no período de 2007 a 2019. Métodos: foi realizado um estudo epidemiológico descritivo e ecológico de análise espacial e temporal, com uso dos programas Quantum-Gis e Joinpoint. Resultados: foram confirmados 316 casos novos, predominantemente, no sexo masculino, nas faixas etárias de 1 a 4 anos (26,3%) e de 20 a 39 anos (24,0%), na zona urbana. Febre (95,9%), fraqueza (85,1%), emagrecimento (80,1%), palidez (73,7%), esplenomegalia (75,6%) e hepatomegalia (69,3%) foram os sinais clínicos mais frequentes. A doença se concentrou em quatro bairros: Terrenos Novos, Centro, Expectativa e Sinhá Saboia, expressando áreas mais densas (quentes). A incidência e a letalidade foram crescentes no início do período e decrescentes no final, com uma inversão destes indicadores no ano de 2014. Conclusão: em Sobral, a leishmaniose visceral humana é um agravo considerado relevante para o serviço de vigilância em saúde com necessidade de intensificação das ações de controle entomológico, zoonótico e de manejo ambiental, principalmente nas áreas mais densas.

Objectives: the objective was to describe the epidemiological, spatial, and temporal aspects of human visceral leishmaniasis, in the municipality of Sobral, from 2007 to 2019. Methods: A descriptive, spatial and temporal ecological study was carried out using Quantum-Gis and Joinpoint programs. Results: 316 new cases were confirmed, predominantly in males, in the age groups of 1 to 4 years (26.3%) and 20 to 39 years (24.0%), mainly in the urban area. Fever (95.9%), weakness (85.1%), weight loss (80.1%), pallor (73.7%), splenomegaly (75.6%), and hepatomegaly (69.3%) were the most frequent clinical signs. The disease was concentrated in four neighborhoods (Terrenos Novos, Centro, Expectativa, and Sinhá Saboia), hot spots. The incidence and case-fatality increased at the beginning of the period but decreased at the end, with an inversion in these in the year 2014. Conclusion: In Sobral, human visceral leishmaniasis is a disease considered relevant to the health surveillance service, with the need to intensify entomological, zoonotic, and environmental management actions, especially in denser areas.

Mortality in post-discharge COVID-19 patients from a tertiary care center - A follow-up study

Background: Among many responsibilities, the doctors from the COVID war room of our institute were assigned to take telephonic follow-up of discharged COVID patients to provide any medical assistance if needed. During this process, few relatives of the patient’s informed back that the patients had died after discharge from the COVID wards. Aim and Objective: Such data of death in the COVID patients after discharged are limited in India; hence, we conducted this study so that more information is generated. Materials and Methods: Relatives of these COVID patients were asked about date and place of death. Other data including gender, age, date of admission, date of discharge, and requirement of oxygen were available with the COVID war room and were used for evaluation. Results: Out of the 892 COVID discharged patients (between August and October 2020) who could be contacted, 19 (2.13%) patients (6 females and 13 males) had died after discharge from the COVID ward. Characteristics of these 19 patients included higher age (n = 11 were 61–80 years old and n = 3 were >80 years old), hospital stay of 11–20 days (n = 12), and required oxygen support (n = 12). Most deaths occurred within 20 days (n = 16) after discharge from the COVID ward. Conclusions: The current study reports deaths occurring COVID patients after discharge. Most of these deaths occurred within 4 weeks of cure and in elderly patients. More research with long-term follow-up is needed in “cured” COVID-19 patients so that appropriate preventive measures can be undertaken in the future.

Maternal Deaths from COVID-19 in Brazil: Increase during the Second Wave of the Pandemic / Mortes maternas por COVID-19 no Brasil: Aumento durante a segunda onda da pandemia

Abstract Objective To compare death rates by COVID-19 between pregnant or postpartum and nonpregnant women during the first and second waves of the Brazilian pandemic. Methods In the present population-based evaluation data from the Sistema de Informação da Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe (SIVEP-Gripe, in the Portuguese acronym), we included women with c (ARDS) by COVID-19: 47,768 in 2020 (4,853 obstetric versus 42,915 nonobstetric) and 66,689 in 2021 (5,208 obstetric versus 61,481 nonobstetric) and estimated the frequency of in-hospital death. Results We identified 377 maternal deaths in 2020 (first wave) and 804 in 2021 (second wave). The death rate increased 2.0-fold for the obstetric (7.7 to 15.4%) and 1.6-fold for the nonobstetric groups (13.9 to 22.9%) from 2020 to 2021 (odds ratio [OR]: 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.47-0.58 in 2020 and OR: 0.61; 95%CI: 0.56- 0.66 in 2021; p < 0.05). In women with comorbidities, the death rate increased 1.7-fold (13.3 to 23.3%) and 1.4-fold (22.8 to 31.4%) in the obstetric and nonobstetric groups, respectively (OR: 0.52; 95%CI: 0.44-0.61 in 2020 to OR: 0.66; 95%CI: 0.59-0.73 in 2021; p <0.05). In women without comorbidities, the mortality rate was higher for nonobstetric (2.4 times; 6.6 to 15.7%) than for obstetric women (1.8 times; 5.5 to 10.1%; OR: 0.81; 95%CI: 0.69-0.95 in 2020 and OR: 0.60; 95%CI: 0.58-0.68 in 2021; p <0.05). Conclusion There was an increase in maternal deaths from COVID-19 in 2021 compared with 2020, especially in patients with comorbidities. Death rates were even higher in nonpregnant women, with or without comorbidities.

Resumo Objetivo Comparar as taxas de mortalidade por COVID-19 entre gestantes ou puérperas e não gestantes durante a primeira e segunda ondas da pandemia brasileira. Métodos Na presente avaliação dos dados do Sistema de Informação da Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe (SIVEP-Gripe), incluímos mulheres com síndrome respiratória aguda grave por COVID-19: 47.768 em 2020 (4.853 obstétricas versus 42.915 não obstétricas) e 66.689 em 2021 (5.208 obstétricas versus 61.481 não obstétricas) e estimamos a frequência de óbito intra-hospitalar. Resultados Identificamos 377 óbitos maternos em 2020 e 804 em 2021. A taxa de mortalidade por COVID-19 aumentou 2,0 vezes no grupo obstétrico (de 7,7 para 15,4%) e 1,6 vezes no grupo não obstétrico (de 13,9 para 22,9%) de 2020 a 2021 (odds ratio [OR]: 0,52; intervalo de confiança [IC] 95%: 0,47-0,58 em 2020 e OR: 0,61; IC95%: 0,56-0,66 em 2021; p <0,05). Em mulheres com comorbidades, a taxa de óbitos aumentou 1,7 vezes (de 13,3 para 23,3%) e 1,4 vezes (de 22,8 para 31,4%) para os grupos obstétricos e não obstétricos, respectivamente (OR: 0,52; IC95%: 0,44-0,61 em 2020 para OR: 0,66; IC95%: 0,59-0,73 em 2021; p <0,05). Em mulheres sem comorbidades, a taxa de mortalidade foi maior para as não obstétricas (2,4 vezes; de 6,6% para 15,7%) do que para mulheres obstétricas (1,8 vezes; de 5,5 para 10,1%; OR: 0,81; IC95%: 0,69-0,95 em 2020 e OR: 0,60; IC95%: 0,58-0,68 em 2021; p < 0,05). Conclusão Houve aumento das mortes maternas por COVID-19 em 2021 em relação a 2020, principalmente naquelas com comorbidades. As taxas de mortalidade foram ainda maiores em mulheres não grávidas, com ou sem comorbidades.

Case-control study in pediatric septic shock with cardiomyopathy / 中国小儿急救医学

Objective:The risk factors and survival conditions of cardiomyopathy in childhood septic shock were retrospectively analyzed.Methods:Children with septic shock admitted to the PICU at Children′s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from January 2015 to March 2021 were collected.The case group included children with septic shock and cardiomyopathy.The propensity score matching method was used to match children with septic shock without cardiomyopathy in a 1∶2 ratio as the control group.Basic clinical data, myocardial biomarkers, cardiac ultrasound indicators, organ function indicators and clinical outcome indicators were collected from two groups.Results:Forty-six patients were included in the case group and 92 patients in the control group.There were no significant differences in age, sex, pediatric critical care score, and basic disease between two groups.Moreover, left ventricular ejection fraction[51.0%(43.0%, 62.0%) vs.65.5%(60.6%, 69.0%)], left ventricle short-axis shortening rate (FS)[26%(21%, 33%) vs.35%(32%, 38%)], and oxygenation index(PaO 2/FiO 2)[324.0(234.3, 400.0) mmHg vs.400.0(265.8, 445.0)mmHg] in case group were lower than those in control group, while the incidence of the ST segment changes of the ECG index (21.7% vs.3.3%), lactate[3.20(1.20, 5.87)mmol/L vs.1.80(1.20, 3.40)mmol/L], and vasoactive drug score[25.14(14.84, 42.70)points vs.15.04(10.00, 26.70) points] in case group were higher than those in control group, the differences were all statistically significant (all P<0.05). The differences of PICU mortality (15.2% vs.14.1%) and 28 d mortality (29.1% vs.29.3%) between two groups were not significant ( P>0.05). The Logistic regression analysis showed that the FS was associated with cardiomyopathy occurring in septic shock[ OR (95% CI): 0.795 (0.714~0.870), P<0.001]. Children with septic shock with elevated cardiac troponin I had an increased risk of death. Conclusion:FS is an independent risk factor for cardiomyopathy in septic shock.There is no difference in survival between septic shock with and without cardiomyopathy.Cardiac troponin I is associated with the prognosis of septic shock in children.

Case-control study in pediatric septic shock with cardiomyopathy / 中国小儿急救医学

Objective:The risk factors and survival conditions of cardiomyopathy in childhood septic shock were retrospectively analyzed.Methods:Children with septic shock admitted to the PICU at Children′s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from January 2015 to March 2021 were collected.The case group included children with septic shock and cardiomyopathy.The propensity score matching method was used to match children with septic shock without cardiomyopathy in a 1∶2 ratio as the control group.Basic clinical data, myocardial biomarkers, cardiac ultrasound indicators, organ function indicators and clinical outcome indicators were collected from two groups.Results:Forty-six patients were included in the case group and 92 patients in the control group.There were no significant differences in age, sex, pediatric critical care score, and basic disease between two groups.Moreover, left ventricular ejection fraction[51.0%(43.0%, 62.0%) vs.65.5%(60.6%, 69.0%)], left ventricle short-axis shortening rate (FS)[26%(21%, 33%) vs.35%(32%, 38%)], and oxygenation index(PaO 2/FiO 2)[324.0(234.3, 400.0) mmHg vs.400.0(265.8, 445.0)mmHg] in case group were lower than those in control group, while the incidence of the ST segment changes of the ECG index (21.7% vs.3.3%), lactate[3.20(1.20, 5.87)mmol/L vs.1.80(1.20, 3.40)mmol/L], and vasoactive drug score[25.14(14.84, 42.70)points vs.15.04(10.00, 26.70) points] in case group were higher than those in control group, the differences were all statistically significant (all P<0.05). The differences of PICU mortality (15.2% vs.14.1%) and 28 d mortality (29.1% vs.29.3%) between two groups were not significant ( P>0.05). The Logistic regression analysis showed that the FS was associated with cardiomyopathy occurring in septic shock[ OR (95% CI): 0.795 (0.714~0.870), P<0.001]. Children with septic shock with elevated cardiac troponin I had an increased risk of death. Conclusion:FS is an independent risk factor for cardiomyopathy in septic shock.There is no difference in survival between septic shock with and without cardiomyopathy.Cardiac troponin I is associated with the prognosis of septic shock in children.

Análisis temporal del covid-19 en Colombia: indicadores asociados y modelización / Temporal analysis of covid-19 in Colombia: associated indicators and modeling

AbstractIntroduction. This study shows statistical information regarding COVID-19 in Colombia up to this date (March 1-2022). Specifically, the daily, monthly and cumulative evolution of infections and deaths, correlated with the distribution of the population according to age and gender. Objective. Show statistical information about COVID-19 that allows help to plan and design, in future Pandemics, public health policy strategies in Colombia. Methods. Daily information since the official declaration of Pandemic in Colombia (March 16 ­ 2020) was obtained by the National Health Institute (INS) and was organized in a database in order to conduct respective analysis. This information was compared to similar studies obtained based on the bibliographical review. Results and Conclusions. Results and conclusions are similar to those found in the reference literature: most part of those dead by COVID-19 are of senior age and male gender. Regarding Case Fatality Rate (CFR), it notoriously increases with age. The most vulnerable population displays an average age of ≥ 52.8 years. The less vulnerable population are young persons under 30 years of age, but specifically, those within the age range of 10 and 20 years. Gompertz and Logistic models can mathematically simulate the evolution of deaths and the evolution of CFR according to age

ResumenIntroducción. Este estudio muestra información estadística sobre el COVID-19 en Colombia a la fecha (1 de marzo de 2022). Específicamente, la evolución diaria, mensual y acumulada de contagios y defunciones, correlacionada con la distribución de la población según edad y sexo. Objetivo. Mostrar información estadística sobre COVID-19 que permita ayudar a planificar y diseñar, en futuras Pandemias, estrategias de política de salud pública en Colombia. Metodología. La información diaria desde la declaratoria oficial de Pandemia en Colombia (16 de marzo de 2020) fue obtenida del Instituto Nacional de Salud (INS) y fue organizada en una base de datos para realizar los análisis respectivos. Esta información se comparó con estudios similares obtenidos a partir de revisión bibliográfica. Resultados y conclusiones. Los resultados y conclusiones son similares a los encontrados en la literatura de referencia: la mayor parte de los fallecidos por COVID-19 son de edad avanzada y sexo masculino. En cuanto a la tasa de letalidad (CFR), ésta aumenta notoriamente con la edad. La población más vulnerable presenta una edad promedio ≥ 52.8 años. La población menos vulnerable son los jóvenes menores de 30 años, pero específicamente, los que se encuentran en el rango de edad de 10 y 20 años. Los modelos Gompertz y Logistic pueden simular matemáticamente la evolución de las muertes y la evolución de la CFR según la edad.

The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the ECOWAS region

Objective: to analyse the pandemic after one year in terms of the evolution of morbidity and mortality and factors that may contribute to this evolution Design: This is a secondary analysis of data gathered to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of cases, incidence rate, cumulative incidence rate, number of deaths, case fatality rate and their trends were analysed during the first year of the pandemic. Testing and other public health measures were also described according to the information available. Settings: The 15 States members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) were considered. Results: As of 31st March 2021, the ECOWAS region reported 429,760 COVID-19 cases and 5,620 deaths. In the first year, 1,110.75 persons were infected per million, while 1.31% of the confirmed patients died. The ECOWAS region represents 30% of the African population. One year after the start of COVID-19 in ECOWAS, this region reported 10% of the cases and 10% of the deaths in the continent. Cumulatively, the region has had two major epidemic waves; however, countries show different patterns. The case fatality rate presented a fast growth in the first months and then decreased to a plateau. Conclusion: We learn that the context of COVID-19 is specific to each country. This analysis shows the importance of better understanding each country's response. During this first year of the pandemic, the problem of variants of concern and the vaccination were not posed.

Analysis of relevant factors of death cases in pediatric intensive care units in Guiyang City in 2017 / 中国小儿急救医学

Objective:The epidemiological characteristics of PICU deaths in 2017 in the Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University, Guizhou Provincial People′s Hospital, and Guiyang Children′s Hospital were summarized and analyzed to provide a basis for formulating intervention measures to effectively reduce the mortality rate of children.Methods:The clinical datas of PICU deaths in three tertiary hospitals in 2017 were collected retrospectively.The cases were divided according to different ages and lengths of hospitalization.And gender, age, length of death, length of hospitalization, and death diseases were summarized and analyzed.Results:In 2017, the PICU of the three tertiary hospitals admitted 2 092 children, of which 139 (6.64%) died, including 84 males and 55 females.The months with the highest case fatality rates were January, February, July and August.The fatality rates were 9.14% (18/197), 9.04% (15/166), 13.25% (20/151), 7.93% (13/164), respectively.There was statistically significant difference in the mortality of children admitted in each month ( P=0.038). Among the death cases, the infant group (29 days to 1 year old) accounted for the largest proportion with 58 cases (41.73%), followed by the preschool group (3 to 7 years old) with 37 cases (26.62%), the infant group (1 to 3 years old) with 24 cases(17.27%), and the school-age group (7 to 14 years old) with 20 cases(14.38%). The top three death diseases were: 39 cases (28.06%) of bronchial pneumonia (severe), 28 cases (20.14%) of hematological tumors and solid tumors, and 23 cases (16.55%) of trauma.The difference of its distribution in different age groups was statistically significant( P<0.05). The patients were divided into four groups according to the length of hospital stay.The time ≤1 d group had the highest mortality of 54 cases (38.85%), -3 d group and -7 d group both had 32 cases (23.02%), the >7 d group had the lowest mortality of 21 cases (15.11%). Conclusion:In 2017, January, February and July, August are the peak months of deaths in PICUs in Guizhou, with the highest number of infant deaths.Bronchial pneumonia(severe), hematological tumors and solid tumors, and trauma are the top three death diseases.

Factores asociados a letalidad por COVID-19 en un hospital de la región Cajamarca en Perú / Factors associated with COVID-19 lethality in a hospital in the Cajamarca region in Peru

RESUMEN Objetivo. Identificar las características clínicas y epidemiológicas relacionadas a la letalidad en pacientes hospitalizados por COVID-19 en el Hospital Simón Bolívar de Cajamarca, durante junio-agosto de 2020. Materiales y métodos. Cohorte retrospectiva, con información recolectada de historias clínicas y sistemas oficiales de vigilancia epidemiológica (NOTIWEB, SISCOVID y SINADEF), sobre pacientes hospitalizados con diagnóstico confirmado de COVID-19. Se recolectó información sobre factores sociodemográficos y clínicos, considerando como desenlace el egreso (fallece/sobrevive) y los días de hospitalización. Resultados. La tasa de letalidad intrahospitalaria fue 39,6%, encontrándose diferencias significativas entre el tiempo de hospitalización y la condición de egreso en las personas mayores de 60 años (p<0,001). La edad mayor de 60 años (HR: 2,87; IC95%: 1,76-4,68),) solicitud de cama UCI no atendida (HR: 3,49; IC95%: 2,02-6,05), saturación de oxígeno menor a 80% al ingreso (HR: 2,73; IC95%: 1,35-5,53) y el uso de ivermectina (HR: 1,68; IC95% 1,06-2,68) fueron factores asociados a letalidad. El modelo de Machine Learning (ML) elegido consideró que las variables con mayor importancia fueron la saturación de oxígeno, la edad mayor de 60 años, tiempo de hospitalización y tiempo de síntomas. Conclusión. Los factores que podrían incrementar la letalidad en pacientes hospitalizados por COVID-19 fueron la edad, saturación de oxígeno menor a 80%, uso de ivermectina en la terapéutica hospitalaria y la solicitud no atendida de camas UCI. Futuros estudios con una mejor representatividad podrían confirmar estas posibles relaciones a nivel regional o nacional.

ABSTRACT Objective. To identify the clinical and epidemiological characteristics related to lethality in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 at the Simón Bolívar Hospital in Cajamarca, during June-August 2020. Materials and Methods. This was a retrospective cohort, that used information collected from clinical records and official epidemiological surveillance systems (NOTIWEB, SISCOVID and SINADEF), on hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis. Information was collected on sociodemographic and clinical factors, considering discharge (death/survival) and days of hospitalization as outcomes. Results. The in-hospital fatality rate was 39.6%, and significant differences were found between hospitalization time and status at discharge in people over 60 years of age (p<0.001). Age older than 60 years (HR: 2.87; 95% CI: 1.76-4.68),) unattended ICU bed request (HR: 3.49; 95% CI: 2.02-6.05), oxygen saturation less than 80% at admission (HR: 2.73; 95% CI: 1.35-5.53) and the use of ivermectin (HR: 1.68; 95%CI 1.06-2.68) were factors associated with lethality. The chosen ML model considered that the most important variables were oxygen saturation, age over 60 years, time of hospitalization and time of the onset of symptoms. Conclusion. The factors that could increase lethality in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 were age, oxygen saturation less than 80%, use of ivermectin as part of hospital treatment and unattended request for ICU beds. Future studies with better representativeness could confirm these possible relationships at the regional or national level.

Epidemiological perspective of the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Amapá State, Northern Brazil / Perspectiva epidemiológica da evolução da pandemia da COVID-19 no Estado do Amapá, Norte do Brasil

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 impacted health systems worldwide; the virus quickly spread in Brazil, reaching its 27 Federative units peculiarly. The northern country region recorded the lowest number of cases and accumulated deaths from the disease. However, it is a region of sizeable territorial extension and low demographic density, marked by socioeconomic inequalities and vulnerable groups, such as indigenous tribes, riverine peoples, and quilombolas. Sociodemographic factors may contribute to the dissemination of the coronavirus in this territory; thus, studies are needed to analyze the epidemiological indicators related to the pandemic. OBJECTIVE: to evaluate incidence, mortality, and case fatality of COVID-19 trends in the state of Amapá, Brazil, from March 2020 to April 2021. METHODS: an ecological time-series study was conducted with publicly accessible data from the Health Department of the State of Amapá. Incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants and percentage case fatality were calculated. Crude rates were calculated by municipalities, age, and sex, per month. The Prais-Winsten regression test was performed, and the trends of monthly rates were classified as increasing, decreasing, or flat. RESULTS: during the study period, there were 99.936 cases and 1,468 deaths accumulated by COVID-19 in the State of Amapá, Brazil. Macapá and Santana's cities, which have the highest demographic density and Human Development Index (HDI), had the highest number of cases and deaths. The most vulnerable population was elderly males aged 70 years or over; these individuals had the highest cumulative incidence, case fatality, and mortality rates. The second wave of the disease (October 2020 to April 2021) illustrated a more aggravating scenario, with increasing incidence and mortality rates. CONCLUSION: the COVID-19 pandemic in the state of Amapá, Brazil, is in increasing evolution, which illustrates that non-pharmacological prevention measures and acceleration of vaccination must be strengthened to avoid the development of future waves of the disease.

INTRODUÇÃO: a COVID-19 impactou os sistemas de saúde em todo o mundo, rapidamente o vírus disseminou-se no Brasil, atingindo de modo distinto as 27 unidades Federativas do país. A região norte do Brasil registrou o menor número de casos e óbitos acumulados da doença. Entretanto, trata-se de região de grande extensão territorial e baixa densidade demográfica, marcada por desigualdades socioeconômicas, presença de população vulnerável como tribos indígenas, povos ribeirinhos e quilombolas. Os fatores sociodemográficos podem contribuir para a disseminação do coronavírus na região, assim, fazem-se necessários estudos que analisem os indicadores epidemiológicos relacionados à pandemia. OBJETIVO: avaliar as tendências da incidência, mortalidade e letalidade da COVID-19 no estado do Amapá, durante o período de março de 2020 a abril de 2021. MÉTODO: foi realizado um estudo ecológico de séries temporais, com dados de livre acesso, oriundos da Secretaria de Saúde do Estado do Amapá. Foi calculado a taxa de incidência e mortalidade por 100.000 habitantes e letalidade percentual. As taxas brutas foram calculadas por municípios, idade e sexo e por mês. Foi realizado o teste de regressão de Prais-Winsten, as tendências das taxas mensais foram classificadas em crescentes, decrescentes ou estacionárias. RESULTADOS: houve 99,936 casos e 1,468 óbitos acumulados por COVID-19 no Estado do Amapá durante o período estudado. As cidades de Macapá e Santana, que apresentaram densidades demográficas e Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano (IDH) mais elevados, apresentaram o maior número de casos e óbitos. A população mais vulnerável foi constituída pelos idosos do sexo masculino, com idade igual ou superior a 70 anos, estes indivíduos apresentaram as maiores taxas acumuladas de incidência, letalidade e mortalidade. A segunda onda da doença (outubro de 2020 a abril de 2021) ilustrou um cenário mais agravante, com crescentes nas taxas de incidência e mortalidade. CONCLUSÃO: a pandemia da COVID-19 no estado do Amapá está em crescente evolução, o que ilustra que medidas de prevenção não farmacológicas e aceleração à vacinação devem ser fortalecidas para evitar o desenvolvimento de futuras ondas da doença.

Analysis of COVID-19 mortality and case-fatality in a low- income region: an ecological time-series study in Tocantins, Brazilian Amazon / Análise da mortalidade e letalidade por COVID-19 em uma região de baixa renda: um estudo ecológico de série temporal no Tocantins, Amazônia Brasileira

INTRODUCTION: Inserted in the vulnerable context of the Brazilian Amazon, the state of Tocantins has suffered damages with the dissemination of COVID-19 in its territory; however, little evidence is published from this state. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze the case-fatality, mortality, and incidence of COVID-19 in Tocantins. METHODS: This is an ecological study, population-based, time-series analysis of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the state of Tocantins from March 2020 to August 2021. RESULTS: During the examined period, 219,031 COVID-19 cases, and 3,594 deaths were registered due to disease. Two possible occurrence peaks were characterized in this time-series analysis. Remarkably, the Second Wave had the highest lethality rates (3.02% - April 2021), mortality (39.81 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants - March 2021), and incidence (1,938.88 cases per 100,000 inhabitants - March 2021). At the end of the period, mortality, incidence, and lethality showed flat trends, suggesting a positive outcome of the vaccination program. CONCLUSION: The prevention, surveillance, and control actions of COVID-19 cases in Tocantins State have been directed to mitigate the deleterious effects of the pandemic. Nevertheless, efforts are still needed to decrease lethality, mortality, and incidence trends, and ultimately to achieve control of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region

INTRODUÇÃO: Inserido em vulnerável contexto da Amazônia Brasileira, o estado de Tocantis tem sofrido danos com a disseminação da COVID-19 em seu território; entretanto, escassas evidências têm sido publicadas sobre este estado. OBJETIVO: O objetivo deste estudo é analisar a letalidade, mortalidade e incidência da COVID-19 em Tocantins. MÉTODO: Este é um estudo ecológico, de base populacional, com análises de séries temporais de casos e óbitos de COVID-19 no estado do Tocantins de março de 2020 a agosto de 2021. RESULTADOS: No período examinado, foram registrados 219.031 casos de COVID-19 e 3,594 óbitos devido a doença. Foram caracterizadas nesta análise de série temporal a formação de duas possíveis ondas. Notavelmente, a segunda onda apresentou as maiores taxas de letalidade (3,02% - abril de 2021), mortalidade (39,81 óbitos por 100.000 habitantes - março de 2021) e incidência (1.938,88 casos por 100.000 habitantes - março de 2021). No final do período, a mortalidade, incidência e letalidade apresentaram tendências estacionárias, sugerindo um resultado positivo do programa de vacinação. CONCLUSÃO: As ações de prevenção, vigilância e controle dos casos de COVID-19 no Estado do Tocantins têm sido direcionadas para mitigar os efeitos deletérios da pandemia. No entanto, esforços ainda são necessários para diminuir as tendências da letalidade, mortalidade e, em última instância, para alcançar o controle da pandemia de COVID-19 na região.

Epidemiological profile of COVID-19 in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, from march 2020 to june 2021 / Perfil epidemiológico da COVID-19 no Estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil, de março de 2020 a junho 2021

INTRODUCTION: coronavirus 2019 Disease (COVID-19) was quickly declared a pandemic, and Brazil is facing the most significant health and hospital crisis in its history. From March to June 2021 represented 50.8% of all deaths in the State of Espirito Santo OBJECTIVE: to analyze the lethality and mortality by COVID-19 in the State of Espirito Santo from March 2020 to June 2021. METHODS: an ecological study was carried out, using a time series of public and official data available on the Health Department of the State of Espirito Santo, Brazil. Were considered information about cases and deaths (from March 2020 to June 2021) of COVID-19. Percentage case-fatality and mortality and incidence rates per 100,000 population were calculated. Time-series analyses were performed using the Prais-Winsten regression model, estimating the Daily Percent Change (DPC), and the trends were classified as flat, increasing, or decreasing. Significant differences were considered when p<0.05. RESULTS: 524,496 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of June 30, 2021, and 11,516 progressed to death. The presence of cardiovascular diseases represents more than half of confirmed comorbidities (54.37%) in patients with COVID-19, followed by diabetes (19.95%) and obesity (9.34%). Men had higher mortality and lethality, especially in older age groups, but the incidence was higher among women. A characteristic profile of two waves was observed; the first wave was extended from March to October 2020 and the second complete wave from November 2020 to June 2021. During the second wave, high peaks of incidence, lethality, and mortality were recorded. At the end of the second wave, the incidence rate remained with increasing trends (p < 0.05), with a DPC of 2.06%. CONCLUSION: the peak concentration of cases, deaths, and indicators of lethality, mortality evidenced even after one year of pandemic, characterizes the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, still in entire evolution in the State Espirito Santo and Brazil.

INTRODUÇÃO: a doença do Coronavírus 2019 (COVID-19) foi rapidamente declarada pandemia, e o Brasil está enfrentando a crise hospitalar e de saúde mais significativa de sua história. De março a junho de 2021 representou 50,8% de todas as mortes no Estado do Espírito Santo. OBJETIVO: analisar a letalidade e mortalidade por COVID-19 no Estado do Espírito Santo no período de março de 2020 a junho de 2021. MÉTODO: foi realizado um estudo ecológico, utilizando uma série histórica de dados públicos e oficiais disponíveis na Secretaria de Saúde do Estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil. Foram consideradas informações sobre casos e óbitos (de março de 2020 a junho de 2021) da COVID-19. Foram calculadas as percentagens de letalidade e mortalidade e taxas de incidência por 100.000 habitantes. As análises de séries temporais foram realizadas usando o modelo de regressão de Prais-Winsten, estimando a variação percentual diária (DPC), e as tendências foram classificadas como estacionaria, crescentes ou decrescentes. Diferenças significativas foram consideradas quando p <0,05. RESULTADOS: 524.496 casos confirmados de COVID-19 até 30 de junho de 2021 e 11.516 evoluíram para óbito. A presença de doenças cardiovasculares representa mais da metade das comorbidades confirmadas (54,37%) em pacientes com COVID-19, seguida de diabetes (19,95%) e obesidade (9,34%). Os homens apresentaram maior mortalidade e letalidade, principalmente nas faixas etárias mais velhas, mas a incidência foi maior entre as mulheres. Observou-se um perfil característico de duas ondas; a primeira onda foi estendida de março a outubro de 2020 e a segunda onda completa de novembro de 2020 a junho de 2021. Durante a segunda onda, altos picos de incidência, letalidade e mortalidade foram registrados. Ao final da segunda onda, a taxa de incidência manteve-se com tendência crescente (p <0,05), com DPC de 2,06%. CONCLUSÃO: o pico de concentração de casos, óbitos e indicadores de letalidade, mortalidade evidenciados mesmo após um ano de pandemia, caracteriza a gravidade da pandemia COVID-19, ainda em evolução total no Estado do Espírito Santo e Brasil.

Mortality and case fatality rates of COVID-19 in the State of Goiás, Brazil / Taxas de mortalidade e fatalidade de casos da COVID-19 no Estado de Goiás, Brasil

INTRODUCTION: the initial spread of the pandemic in Brazil was mainly affected by patterns of socioeconomic vulnerability. It should be noted that the Central-West region of Brazil is one of the regions with the lowest number of cases, but the states of this region together have the highest mortality rate of COVID-19 in the country. Goiás was the most affected state of this region, with the highest number of deaths in the area. OBJECTIVE: to assess the incidence of mortality and lethality caused by COVID-19 from March 2020 to June 2021 in the State of Goiás, Brazil. METHODS: an ecological study, using a series of time series of public and official data of the Department of Health of the State of Goiás, Brazil. Information was collected on cases and deaths from COVID-19 from March 2020 to June 2021. Mortality, case fatality, and incidence rates were calculated. The Prais-Wisten regression model was used to build time series. The daily percent change (DPC) and the effective reproductive number (Rt) were estimated. RESULTS: Goiás had a predominance of a greater viral spread during the first and the beginning of the second wave, with Rt higher than 1. The second wave from December 2020 to June 2021 was more lethal and had higher mortality rates than the first wave. It was observed, higher scores of case fatality and mortality belonged to males and the elderly. CONCLUSION: an analysis of mortality and case fatality rates helps understand the COVID-19 pandemic behavior in Goiás. It is essential to monitor epidemiological indicators and strengthen intervention strategies to contain the pandemic in this state.

INTRODUÇÃO: a propagação inicial da pandemia no Brasil foi afetada principalmente por padrões de vulnerabilidade socioeconômica. Ressalta-se que a região Centro-Oeste do Brasil é uma das regiões com menor número de casos, mas os estados dessa região juntos apresentaram a maior taxa de mortalidade por COVID-19 do país. Goiás foi o estado mais afetado da região, com o maior número de óbitos. OBJETIVO: avaliar a incidência, mortalidade e letalidade por COVID-19 no Estado de Goiás, Brasil, no período de março de 2020 a junho de 2021. MÉTODO: estudo ecológico, utilizando séries temporais de dados públicos e oficiais da Secretaria de Saúde do Estado de Goiás, Brasil. As informações foram coletadas sobre casos e óbitos de COVID-19 de março de 2020 a junho de 2021. Mortalidade, letalidade e taxas de incidência foram calculadas. O modelo de regressão Prais-Wisten foi usado para construir séries temporais. A mudança percentual diária (DPC) e o número reprodutivo efetivo (Rt) foram estimados. RESULTADOS: Goiás teve predomínio de maior disseminação viral durante a primeira onda e o início da segunda onda, com Rt maior que 1. A segunda onda, dezembro de 2020 a junho de 2021, foi mais letal e apresentou taxas de mortalidade maiores que a primeira onda. Observou-se que os maiores escores de letalidade e mortalidade pertenciam ao sexo masculino e aos idosos CONCLUSÃO: uma análise das taxas de mortalidade e letalidade ajuda a entender o comportamento da pandemia do COVID-19 em Goiás. É fundamental monitorar indicadores epidemiológicos e fortalecer estratégias de intervenção para conter a pandemia neste estado.

Trends in COVID-19 mortality and case-fatality rate in the State of Paraná, South Brazil: spatiotemporal analysis over one year of the Pandemic / Tendências da mortalidade e letalidade por COVID-19 no Estado do Paraná, Sul do Brasil: análise espaço-temporal de um ano de Pandemia

INTRODUCTION: By late 2019, China notified a new disease rising, and with the agent's identification, it was called COVID-19. Despite the efforts of the World Health Organization (WHO) and worldwide countries, the disease spread out of control; on March 11, WHO declared the pandemic state. Brazil is the biggest country in South America, demarcated into 26 states with different economic, cultural, and social aspects. Paraná is one of the Brazilian federative units, it is the sixth more economically important and ranks second in Education. Its first COVID-19 case was confirmed on March 12, 2020, and the first death was on March 27, two weeks after the first death in Brazil. OBJECTIVE: This study objective is to determine the mortality and case-fatality rates of COVID-19 in the State of Paraná, Brazil, from March 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021. METHODS: It is an ecological time-series study, using all cases (854,326) and deaths (17,229 deaths) of COVID-19 reported in public and official database of the State of Paraná Health Department. Case fatality and mortality rates were stratified by sex and age. For trend analysis, the period was divided into a first "wave" (March to November 2020) and a second "wave" (December 2020 to March 2021). The Prais-Winsten regression model for population mortality and case-fatality rates allowed classifying whether it increased, decreased, or was flat. RESULTS: Women were more affected by the number of cases, with 454,056 cases (53.15%) confirmed and 7,257 fatalities (42.12%). A total of 400,270 men (46.85%) were infected and 9,972(57.87%) died. For the first year of COVID-19, in the State of Paraná, the incidence was calculated as 7404.12/100,000 inhabitants, the mortality was 149.32/100,000 inhabitants, and the case-fatality rate was 2.02%. We saw a tendency for decreasing the case-fatality rate (DPC = -0,18; p<0,001). The mortality and incidence showed an increasing trend (DPC=1,13, p<0,001; DPC=1,58, p<0,001, respectively. CONCLUSION: The level and variability of transmission during this first year of pandemic suggest that the disease in the State of Paraná was never under control.

INTRODUÇÃO: no final de 2019, a China notificou o surgimento de uma nova doença, com a identificação do agente, passou a chamar-se COVID-19. Apesar dos esforços da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) e de países em todo o mundo, a doença se espalhou fora de controle; em 11 de março, a OMS declarou o estado de pandemia. O Brasil é o maior país da América do Sul, demarcado em 26 estados com diferentes aspectos econômicos, culturais e sociais. O Paraná é uma das unidades federativas brasileiras, é o sexto mais importante economicamente e o segundo em Educação. Seu primeiro caso de COVID-19 foi confirmado em 12 de março de 2020, e o primeiro óbito em 27 de março, duas semanas após o primeiro óbito no Brasil. OBJETIVO: o objetivo deste estudo é determinar as taxas de mortalidade e letalidade da COVID-19 no Estado do Paraná, Brasil, de 1º de março de 2020 a 31 de março de 2021. MÉTODO: trata-se de um estudo ecológico de série temporal que avaliou todos os casos (854.326) e óbitos (17.229 óbitos) da COVID-19 notificados em banco de dados público e oficial da Secretaria de Saúde do Estado do Paraná. As taxas de letalidade e mortalidade foram estratificadas por sexo e idade. Para análise de tendência, o período foi dividido em uma "primeira onda" (março a novembro de 2020) e uma "segunda onda" (dezembro de 2020 a março de 2021). O modelo de regressão de Prais-Winsten para taxas de mortalidade populacional e letalidade permitiu classificar as tendências em crescentes, decrescentes ou estacionárias. RESULTADOS: as mulheres foram as mais afetadas pelo número de casos, com 454.056 casos (53,15%) confirmados e 7.257 óbitos (42,12%). Um total de 400.270 homens (46,85%) foram infectados e 9.972 (57,87%) morreram. Para o primeiro ano da COVID-19, no Estado do Paraná a incidência foi calculada em 7.404,12/100.000 habitantes, a mortalidade foi de 149,32 / 100.000 habitantes e a letalidade foi de 2,02%. Observamos uma tendência de diminuição da taxa de letalidade (DPC= -0,18; p <0,001). A mortalidade e incidência apresentaram tendência crescentes (DPC=1,13, p <0,001; DPC= 1,58, p <0,001, respectivamente. CONCLUSÃO: o nível e a variabilidade da transmissão durante este primeiro ano de pandemia sugerem que a doença no Estado do Paraná nunca esteve sob controle.

Desigualdades sociais associadas com a letalidade por COVID-19 na cidade de Fortaleza, Ceará, 2020 / Desigualdades sociales asociadas con la letalidad por COVID-19 en la ciudad de Fortaleza, estado de Ceará, Brasil, 2020 / Social inequalities associated with COVID-19 case fatality rate in Fortaleza, Ceará state, Brazil, 2020

Resumo Objetivo Analisar a associação entre as desigualdades sociais e sanitárias, condições socioeconômicas, segregação espacial e letalidade por COVID-19 em Fortaleza, Ceará, Brasil. Métodos Estudo ecológico de casos confirmados e óbitos por COVID-19, tendo como unidades de análise os 119 bairros de Fortaleza. Calcularam-se os indicadores de incidência, mortalidade e letalidade aparente por COVID-19, entre 1º de janeiro e 8 de junho de 2020. Indicadores socioeconômicos foram extraídos do Censo Demográfico do Brasil de 2010. Foi realizada análise espacial e calculados índice global e local de Moran. Resultados Foram encontrados 22.830 casos confirmados, 2.333 óbitos e uma letalidade aparente de 12,7% (IC95% 11,6;13,9). Observaram--se autocorrelações espaciais significativas para letalidade aparente (I=0,35) e extrema pobreza (I=0,51), sobrepostas em diversos bairros da cidade. Conclusão A letalidade aparente por COVID-19 está associada a piores condições socioeconômicas e de saúde, demonstrando a relação entre desigualdades sociais e desfechos de saúde em tempos de pandemia.

Resumen Objetivo Analizar la asociación entre las desigualdades sociales y sanitarias, condiciones socioeconómicas, segregación espacial y letalidad por COVID-19 en Fortaleza, Ceará, Brasil. Métodos Estudio ecológico de casos y defunciones confirmadas por COVID-19, se utilizaron, como unidades de análisis, 119 barrios de Fortaleza. Se calcularon los indicadores de incidencia, mortalidad y letalidad aparente por COVID-19, entre el 1 de enero y el 8 de junio de 2020. Los indicadores socioeconómicos se extrajeron del Censo Demográfico de Brasil 2010. Se realizó un análisis espacial y calculados los índices Global y Local de Moran. Resultados Se encontraron 22.830 casos confirmados, 2.333 muertes y una letalidad aparente de 12,7 (IC95% 11,6;13,9). Se observaron autocorrelaciones espaciales significativas para letalidad aparente (I=0,35) y extrema pobreza (I=0,51) que se sobreponen en diversos barrios de la ciudad. Conclusión La letalidad por COVID-19 está asociada con peores condiciones socioeconómicas y sanitárias, demostrando la relación entre desigualdades sociales y los resultados de salud en tiempos de pandemia.

Abstract Objective To analyze the association among social and health inequalities, socioeconomic status, spatial segregation and Case Fatality Rate (CFR) due to COVID-19 in Fortaleza, the state capital of Ceará, Brazil. Methods This was an ecological study of confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID-19. The 119 neighborhoods of Fortaleza were used as units of analysis. Incidence, mortality and apparent CFR indicators due to COVID-19 were calculated between January 1 and June 8, 2020. Socioeconomic indicators were obtained from the 2010 Brazilian Demographic Census. Spatial analysis was performed and local and global Moran's indexes were calculated. Results There were 22,830 confirmed cases, 2,333 deaths and the apparent CFR was 12.7% (95% CI 11.6;13.9). Significant spatial autocorrelations between apparent CFR (I=0.35) and extreme poverty (I=0.51), overlapping in several neighborhoods of the city, were found. Conclusion The apparent CFR due to COVID-19 is associated with the worst socioeconomic and health status, which shows the relationship between social inequalities and health outcomes in times of pandemic.

Trends in case-fatality rates of COVID-19 in the World, between 2019 - 2020 / Tendência das taxas de letalidade de covid-19 no mundo, entre 2019-2020

INTRODUCTION: CoV infections can potentially cause from a simple cold to a severe respiratory syndrome, such as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV). The COVID-19 created a new reality for global healthcare modelsOBJETIVE: To evaluate trends in case-fatality rates of COVID-19 in the WorldMETHODS: We conducted a population-based time-series study using public and official data of cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Peru, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States and Russian, between December, 2019 and August, 2020. Data were based on reports from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. COVID-19 was defined by the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (U07.1). A Prais-Winsten regression model was performed and the Daily Percentage Change (DPC) calculated determine rates as increasing, decreasing or flatRESULTS: During the study period, trends in case-fatality rates in the world were flat (DPC = 0.3; CI 95% [-0.2: 0.7]; p = 0.225). In Africa, Morocco had decreasing trends (DPC = -1.1; CI 95% [-1.5: -0.7]; p < 0.001), whereas it were increasing in South Africa (p < 0.05) and flat in Nigeria (p > 0.05). In the Americas, Argentina showed a decreasing trend in case-fatality rates (DPC = -0.6; CI 95% [-1.1: -0.2]; p = 0.005), the U.S. had flat trends (p > 0.05) and all other American countries had increasing trends (p < 0.05). In Asia, Iran had decreasing trends (DPC = -1.5; CI 95% [-2.6 : -0.2]; p = 0.019); China and Saudi Arabia showed increasing trends (p < 0.05), while in India, Japan and South Korea they were flat (p > 0.05). European countries had mostly increasing trends (p < 0.05): Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Russia; France and Switzerland had flat trends (p > 0.05). Finally, in Oceania, trends in case-fatality rates were flat in Australia (p > 0.05) and increasing in New Zealand (p < 0.05CONCLUSION: Trends in case-fatality rates of COVID-19 in the World were flat between December, 31 and August, 31. Argentina, Iran and Morocco were the only countries with decreasing trends. On the other hand, South Africa, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, China, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Spain, United Kingdom, Russian and New Zealand had increasing trends in case-fatality rate. All the other countries analyzed had flat trends. Based on case-fatality rate data, our study supports that COVID-19 pandemic is still in progress worldwide

INTRODUÇÃO: As infecções por CoV podem causar desde um simples resfriado até uma síndrome respiratória grave, como a Síndrome Respiratória Aguda Grave e a Síndrome Respiratória do Oriente Médio (MERS-CoV). O COVID-19 impôs uma nova realidade em termos de modelos globais de saúdeOBJETIVO: Avaliar as tendências das taxas de letalidade do COVID-19 no mundoMÉTODO: Estudo de séries temporais de base populacional usando dados públicos e oficiais de casos e mortes por COVID-19 na Argentina, Austrália, Brasil, Chile, China, Colômbia, França, Alemanha, Índia, Irã, Itália, Japão, México, Marrocos, Nova Zelândia, Nigéria, Peru, Arábia Saudita, África do Sul, Coreia do Sul, Espanha, Suíça, Reino Unido, Estados Unidos (EUA) e Rússia, entre 31 dezembro de 2019 e 31 agosto de 2020. Os dados foram baseados nos relatórios do Centro Europeu de Prevenção e Controle de Doenças. COVID-19 foi definido pela Classificação Internacional de Doenças, 10ª revisão (U07.1). Para análise estatística, foi realizado o modelo de regressão de Prais-Winsten, a partir do qual foi possível calcular a variação percentual de mudança diária (DPC) das taxas, classificadas como crescentes, decrescentes ou estacionáriasRESULTADOS: Durante o período do estudo, as taxas de letalidade no mundo permaneceram estacionárias (DPC = 0,3; IC 95% [-0,2: 0,7]; p = 0,225). Na África, Marrocos teve tendência decrescente (DPC = -1,1; IC 95% [-1,5: -0,7]; p <0,001), enquanto na África do Sul houve tendência crescente (p < 0,05) e estacionária na Nigéria (p > 0,05). Em relação às Américas, a Argentina revelou tendência decrescente nas taxas de letalidade (DPC = -0,6; IC 95% [-1,1: -0,2]; p = 0,005), os EUA demonstraram tendência estacionária (p > 0,05) e todos os outros países americanos demonstraram tendências crescentes (p < 0,05). Na Ásia, o Irã apresentou tendência decrescente (DPC = -1,5; IC 95% [-2,6: -0,2]; p = 0,019); China e Arábia Saudita apresentaram tendências crescentes (p <0,05), enquanto Índia, Japão e Coreia do Sul mantiveram tendência estacionária (p > 0,05). A maioria dos países europeus apresentaram tendências crescentes (p <0,05): Alemanha, Itália, Espanha, Reino Unido e Rússia; França e Suíça demonstraram tendências estacionárias (p > 0,05). Por fim, na Oceania, a tendência nas taxas de letalidade na Austrália foi estacionária (p > 0,05) e aumentou na Nova Zelândia (p < 0,05CONCLUSÃO: A tendência nas taxas de letalidade por COVID-19 no mundo permaneceu estacionária entre 31 de dezembro de 2019 e 31 de agosto de 2020. Argentina, Irã e Marrocos foram os únicos países com tendências decrescentes. Por outro lado, África do Sul, Brasil, Canadá, Chile, Colômbia, México, Peru, China, Arábia Saudita, Alemanha, Espanha, Reino Unido, Rússia e Nova Zelândia apresentaram tendências crescentes de letalidade. Todos os outros países analisados demonstraram tendências estacionárias. De acordo com dados de letalidade, nosso estudo confirma que a pandemia de COVID-19 ainda está em fase de progressão em todo o mundo

La pandemia de COVID-19, estudio de casos: Australia, Nueva Zelandia y Cuba / COVID-19 pandemic; case studies: Australia, New Zealand and Cuba

Introducción: La COVID-19, enfermedad respiratoria viral, producida por el SARS- CoV- 2, los primeros casos aparecieron en Wuhan, China, en diciembre 2019, evolucionó a pandemia. La OMS declaró emergencia mundial el 30 de enero del 2020. Se presentan los datos generales de la epidemia en Cuba, Australia y Nueva Zelandia. Objetivo: Describir la evolución de la epidemia en dichos países, las medidas tomadas y sus resultados. Material y Métodos: Investigación descriptiva, cuanti - cualitativa, utilizó la revisión documental, para cotejar información publicada sobre la epidemia en los países seleccionados, en revistas médicas, prensa periódica, sitios web oficiales. Se analizó información hasta el 13 de junio. Resultados: Australia tuvo 7 283 casos, 6 888 (94,48 por ciento) recuperados. Realizaron 1 782 651 test diagnósticos (69,91 por 10 000 habitantes) y positividad de 0.4 por ciento. Reportaron 102 fallecidos, mayores tasas entre 70 - 89 años, letalidad de 1,39 por ciento. Nueva Zelandia totalizó 1 515 casos, con 1 483 recuperados (97,8 por ciento), fallecieron 22. Realizaron 310 297 (36 por 10 000 habitantes) pruebas de PCR, con 0,7 por ciento de positivos. La letalidad fue de 1,9 por ciento. Cuba, acumulaba 2 238 casos, recuperados 1 923 (86 por ciento). Fallecieron 84 pacientes, con letalidad de 3,75 por ciento. Realizaron PCR (12,16 x 10 000 hab.), con 1,7 por ciento positivas. Conclusiones: El control resultó de la voluntad política de enfrentar y contener la epidemia con drásticas medidas de distanciamiento social, cierre de fronteras y aislamiento de territorios, aplicación de test diagnósticos, y la existencia de sistemas de salud públicos robustos y gratuitos(AU)

Introduction: COVID-19 is a viral respiratory disease produced by SARS-CoV-2. The first cases were diagnosed in Wuhan, China in December 2019; then the disease became a pandemic. The WHO declared it a global emergency on January 30, 2020. General data on the epidemic in Cuba, Australia and New Zealand are presented. Objective: To present the evolution of the epidemic in these countries as well as the measures taken and their results. Material and Methods: A descriptive, quantitative and qualitative research used documentary review to compare information about the epidemic in the selected countries. The information was obtained from medical journals, periodical press, and official websites and it was analyzed before June 13. Results: Australia had 7,283 cases of which 6,888 (94.48 percent) patients recovered. They performed 1,782,651 diagnostic tests (69.91 per 10,000 inhabitants) and the positivity was 0.4 percent. They reported 102 deaths with higher rates in people aged 70 - 89 years, and a case fatality of 1.39 percent. New Zealand reported 1,515 cases, with 1,483 recovered (97.8 percent) and 22 deaths. They performed 310,297 (36 per 10,000 population) PCR tests, with 0.7 percent positive cases. The case fatality was 1.9 percent. Cuba accumulated 2,238 cases and 1,923 (86 percent) recovered. A total of 84 patients died, with a lethality of 3.75 percent. PCR tests (12.16 x 10,000 inhabitants) were performed reporting 1.7 percent of positive cases. Conclusions: The control resulted from the political will to confront and contain the epidemic with drastic measures of social distancing, closure of borders and isolation of territories, application of diagnostic tests, and the existence of robust and free public health systems(AU)